DETERRENCE

The US might have given us just the right defence in one of our most crucial moments.

USS North Carolina | Photo by Wikipedia.

Meet the USS North Carolina: a 7,800-ton Virginia-class nuclear submarine, one of the US Navy’s most advanced subs to date. Powered by an S9G reactor, it can stay underwater for months without refuelling, and is equipped with 12 BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of nuclear payload. This makes the sub one of the most lethal first strike weapons in case of war.

Everyone was surprised, even Palace officials, by North Carolina’s visit to Subic earlier this week. While the US Embassy claimed that it did request Malacañan for clearance to berth in Subic, DFA Secretary Albert del Rosario and Presidential Spokesperson Ricardo Carandang denied ever receiving such request. The visit was a complete surprise that even Leftist activist were able to prepare protests ahead of time, and only managed a small lightning rally at the gates of SBMA.

The sub’s visit comes as routine supply replenishment and R&R (rest and recreation), says the US Embassy. But the way I see it, while it could’ve have arrived at some other date, it arrived at a better time just when our Navy and China’s forces have been locking horns at Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. China knows that an ill-equipped Philippine Armed Forces could be easily bullied into relinquishing its claims over the said rocks. What they haven’t anticipated is the government’s determined stance to hold on to its possessions: from sending the BRP Gregorio del Pilar to arrest Chinese fishermen, to sending a diplomatic mission to the United States invoke its assistance and compliance with the Mutual Defense Treaty. While the US categorically stated it’s not going to be involved to avoid escalating tensions, we all know its just wordplay. Behind its apparent reluctance to assist us directly, the US has approved the transfer of another Hamilton-class cutter to the Philippine Navy, and offered to sell a squadron of F-16s to our Air Force. The arrival of the North Carolina is so far the best move in this game of chess its trying to play. No one knows how the US is going to keep this move. All we know is once the North Carolina leaves, it is set to be replaced by USS Texas another sub from the same class.

It may not be getting itself directly in harm’s way but the United States is clearly sending China a message here. The Philippines will always be a strategic political and economic ally of the US in Asia, and it will protect its interests in this corner of the world. The US may not be engaging the enemy for us, or giving us the guns to do so, but it did provide the best deterrent we badly need in order to check China’s hegemonic advance throughout the West Philippine Sea.

Is the US playing chess with China for Panatag Shoal? | Photo courtesy of Flickr

This move, while definitely effective at being the “Big Stick” against China, won’t definitely ease the tension or even force China to bring this issue to the International Tribunal on the Laws of the Sea (ITLOS). It will keep China at bay, but won’t stop it from dictating the course of this struggle or from harassing the Philippines economically and politically. It will merely reiterate the Philippines dependence on US military hardware for its external defense. A variety of strategic actions should be done by the government and by the US in order change the status quo in this critical issue, and turn the tide in favor of the Philippines.

First on the list is increasing its military capability, especially in terms of naval and air power. The Defence Department has made it clear its working on the issue. Recently, it signed a 5-year contract with Italy for the purchase of military hardware (and possibly Italian-made Maestrale or Lupo class frigates) and is eyeing the purchase of state-of-the-art fighter jets from a still unnamed “progressive” country.

But as military capability takes a long time to build, the government has to resort to other tactics that would really hurt China badly and enough to send the message that it shouldn’t mess with us. Aside from finally submitting the issue for arbitration at the ITLOS, the government should devise ways to cripple China’s economy by giving it a dose of its own medicine. They’ve hurt our bananas and tourism industry. We must hit back by blocking its relevant exports to our country as well. Whatever those are, it’s the DTI and Custom’s job to determine. In other hand, there are political approaches available as well, if economic ones don’t work. The government should start considering recognition of Tibetan or Uighur independence, or even Taiwanese independence (the same thing Japan did when it locked horns with China over the Senkaku islands just this month). Another could be a calculated crackdown on everything Chinese and illegal in this country, from shabu makers to illegal aliens. Let’s piss China off with similar acts, only clean and legal.

And so as the North Carolina could be our better deterrent against China right now, this chess game is still between China and us. If we don’t devise our own deterrent moves in time, this country of 1 billion pricks and assholes will just keep on driving the course of this game, until we reach the point of checkmate. And when that day comes, it’s not American ass whose going to get the beating – it your, and your children’s ass who’ll get it. Filipinos unite! Act now before it’s too late! TSS